Consider:
Tonight, I watched the latest episode of Kings. I watched it on Hulu, at 480p, which is so-called Enhanced Definition TV (EDTV). It needed only a little over 1 Mbps of bandwidth.
Video and audio quality depends on more than the stream’s resolution, so it’s possible for a 480p stream to look no better than, or even worse than, a standard definition television picture. I can attest that to my subjective eyes, Hulu’s EDTV quality on my 17″ 1920×1200 MacBook Pro was superior to standard definition television.
I had fewer commercial breaks, of a shorter duration (15 seconds each), than I would have had watching my local NBC affiliate, KING TV. And those commercials could be targeted toward my interests in a way that can’t be done on broadcast television. (Once they collect some data about my viewing habits.) So: fewer commercials, of greater interest to me.
And this viewing was totally legal, and totally free.
Why should I watch any content on my local television affiliate, when I can have a better experience watching it on Hulu? (Or on one of Hulu’s competitors?) The clock is running out on the affiliate broadcast television model. Dead man walking.
What do you think the odds are that these affiliates will find some way to stop that ticking clock?
In the long run? Zero.